Rent growth.

What PriceDNA sources it from

PriceDNA uses two complementary public sources for rent analysis:

• HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, or SAFMRs, provide annual bedroom-specific rent data and the historical series used for modeled rent growth.
• Census American Community Survey rent data provides tract-level rent context and helps establish current rent levels.

HUD publishes SAFMRs by ZIP Code. PriceDNA uses the HUD-USPS ZIP-to-tract crosswalk and residential-address weights to resolve those observations to local tract geography.

Current rent levels combine HUD and Census information where appropriate. Modeled rent growth averages the historical HUD SAFMR growth rate and the local Census rent trend where both are available, and uses whichever one exists where only one does. In projections, the recent rate is weighted by the time horizon and never exceeds the long-run rate.

How PriceDNA calculates it

The growth calculation uses the 2-bedroom HUD SAFMR as a consistent local trend anchor across years.

PriceDNA calculates:

• a 10-year HUD SAFMR compound annual growth rate, representing the longer-term local trend; and
• a 3-year HUD SAFMR compound annual growth rate, representing more recent rent movement.

The projection leans on the recent rate in the early years, so recent cooling shows through quickly, then settles toward the 10-year rate over a longer hold. It is capped at the 10-year rate throughout, so a short rent surge cannot lift it above the 10-year HUD trend.

Why local rent growth matters

Rental conditions can differ substantially across nearby markets. A national rent-growth figure can provide broad context, but it does not describe the income trajectory of a particular local market.

PriceDNA resolves rent growth locally so the assumption used for a property reflects the surrounding area rather than a single national average.

Two properties with the same current rent can produce different modeled outcomes when their local rent-growth assumptions differ. The property with faster modeled rent growth may generate more future income, but that outcome remains dependent on tenant demand, affordability, property condition, management, new supply, and broader economic conditions.

Where it appears in a PriceDNA analysis

Rent growth contributes to:

• the Rental market portion of the PriceDNA Location Score™; and
• the property’s long-term cash flow projections, where modeled rent changes affect future income, cash flow, and projected return on investment.

Rent growth is an assumption, not a guarantee that rents can be raised, that tenants will accept an increase, or that future market rents will follow the modeled path. Investors should consider lease restrictions, local law, tenant turnover, property condition, affordability, and competing supply when testing the assumption.